Web 2.0: The Web Reloaded

Web 2.0: Why Now?

November 20th, 2005

While at the Riya launch party, I got into a conversation with a few people about “Why now?” and “How is this different than the last bubble?”.

My take on the first question is that it is an issue of convergence; the demand for a user centric web, where sharing, communication and a rich experience is the norm, is intersecting the availability of technology, such as RSS and AJAX, to make it happen.

Consider blogs. I’ve heard / read about the proliferation of individual ramblings, ideas, streams of conscious, etc.; it seems everyone has an opinion about everything and wants to share it with everyone. The part that surprises me is that this phenomenon surprises others. I think people have always had opinions they wanted the world to hear, but now the mechanism for sharing these ideas is easy and cheap. The technology, combined with the demand, has given people a voice via blogs.

So, the Web 2.0 pehenomenon is the eruption of demand for such applications being released by the technology to make it possible. While this is not at all an original idea (though I did think of it on my own), the second question is the interesting one.

I think Bubble 1.0 was partially the result of the Costo-Style Programming / New Toy Effect. There was a “build it and they will come” mentality, driven by a “build it because its cool and we can.” The absense of business models was evidence that there wasn’t a real market need, or at least, market need wasn’t driving much of the development and companies. (Combine this with the The True Believer, by Eric Hoffer, and you have a pundit worthy theory.)

This is the big difference when comparing the current hype and the previous collapse. I think much of the innovation today is being driven by actual user needs and demands. Riya is a perfect example of this; the prevalence of digital cameras and resulting huge picture inventories drove the need for good photo search.

Some think that idle developers invented cool new technology and that’s is driving the timing of Web 2.0. This would be the “Costco /  Toy” effect all-over again. But I disagree. In the wake of the Internet bubble, consumers were introduced to the Internet and the seed was planted regarding its potential. During the quiet of recent years, those seeds have grown and a more mature understanding of user’s own needs is developing. The core of AJAX and even RSS was first offered by Microsoft in the late 1990’s (IE offered XML feeds in JavaScript and remeber Active Channel?), but didn’t have an impact then. But these technologies are maturing and being applied well because of user need, not technical availability.

There are some different explanations and perspectives, such as David Cowan’s blog entry. However, I don’t think there will be a bubble as long as Web 2.0 continues to be market driven, even if VC speculation is not. 

Entry Filed under: Misc